As part of the EnergyForum Valais/Wallis a seminar was held in the afternoon on «Challenges in Forecasting Peak Electricity Demand».
This seminar was geared towards researchers and statisticians, professionals in the field of energy as well as other interested parties from the field of energy forecasting.
Keynote speaker is Australian Prof. Dr. Rob J. Hyndman, internationally renowned expert in the field of statistical energy forecasting (www.robjhyndman.com).
Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in short-term load allocation and long-term planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation.
It is a challenging problem because of the different uncertainties including underlying population growth, changing technology, economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions (and the timing of those conditions), as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage. It is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day, day of week, time of year, and public holidays. But the most challenging part is that we often want to forecast the peak demand rather than the average demand. Consequently, it is necessary to adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels in order to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty.